Comments on: Catapulting the Propaganda http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/ Mon, 03 Aug 2009 03:05:42 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Thomas http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9602 Thomas Fri, 29 Feb 2008 11:08:00 +0000 http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9602 I think there is more in it than hostility. There is also a cultural angle. I have almost never met a Taiwanese who likes traveling to/from China, or traveling around China. You may know different people than I do, and I am not trying for any sweeping generalisations, but the Taiwanese I have met all seem to perceive a distance between themselves and those across the Strait, and it is not a perception that improves with more contact. <br/><br/>Would such perceptions change under a KMT government? Maybe, maybe not. Why speculate about this or even about "if friendly gestures like what happened in 2005 are repeated regularly" to use your own words, CCT? After all, you don't like "random hypotheticals" ;) Me neither, in fact. I think there is more in it than hostility. There is also a cultural angle. I have almost never met a Taiwanese who likes traveling to/from China, or traveling around China. You may know different people than I do, and I am not trying for any sweeping generalisations, but the Taiwanese I have met all seem to perceive a distance between themselves and those across the Strait, and it is not a perception that improves with more contact.

Would such perceptions change under a KMT government? Maybe, maybe not. Why speculate about this or even about “if friendly gestures like what happened in 2005 are repeated regularly” to use your own words, CCT? After all, you don’t like “random hypotheticals” ;) Me neither, in fact.

]]> By: CCT http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9599 CCT Thu, 28 Feb 2008 19:39:00 +0000 http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9599 By the way, Olympics are getting awfully close. How about a discussion on this MAC survy:<br/> http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/mlpolicy/pos/9609/9609a.pdf By the way, Olympics are getting awfully close. How about a discussion on this MAC survy:
http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/mlpolicy/pos/9609/9609a.pdf

]]> By: CCT http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9598 CCT Thu, 28 Feb 2008 19:34:00 +0000 http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9598 By the way, the MAC didn't directly conduct any of these surveys. The MAC is the government institution (formerly headed by Tsai Ying-wen) formally charged with everything mainland related. The chart you see is the MAC recording results from other academic sources.<br/><br/>And these results certainly does try to evaluate long-term interests. It gives "status quo now, independence/unification later" as an option. Why doesn't that address one of your two concerns? By the way, the MAC didn’t directly conduct any of these surveys. The MAC is the government institution (formerly headed by Tsai Ying-wen) formally charged with everything mainland related. The chart you see is the MAC recording results from other academic sources.

And these results certainly does try to evaluate long-term interests. It gives “status quo now, independence/unification later” as an option. Why doesn’t that address one of your two concerns?

]]> By: CCT http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9597 CCT Thu, 28 Feb 2008 19:17:00 +0000 http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9597 <i>Imagine if China renounced its claim to Taiwan and said "OK, up to you." Do you think that only 19% would support ultimate de jure independence?</i><br/><br/>I personally am not interested in random hypotheticals, especially when they're unlikely to happen.<br/><br/>Imagine if the United States renounced the Taiwan Relations Act, and said "screw you Taiwan, we're not getting involved under any circumstance". Would support for reunification and independence remain the same?<br/><br/>We live in the world we live in. The only thing that matters is the conclusion that the Taiwanese come to; their thought process is only interesting in the way it effects their conclusion. <br/><br/>Bottom line, the vast majority of Taiwanese are not seeking independence as a goal.<br/><br/>As far as why support for annexation is dropping... I'll show you a related chart from the MAC. <br/><br/>http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/mlpolicy/pos/9612/9612_7.gif<br/><br/>I couldn't find the English version on their site. The title is: "people's perception of the mainland regime's hostility". <br/><br/>- the red bar shows those who believe the mainland government is "hostile towards our government"; <br/>- the yellow bar shows "hostile towards our people".<br/><br/>As you can see, most Taiwanese believe the Beijing government is hostile... not just to government, but to the Taiwanese people. What's very significant to me, however, is the change shown in year 94 (2005 to the rest of us). That sample was taken shortly after Lien Chan/James Soong's trip to Beijing. <br/><br/>Clearly, those positive effects have largely worn off... those events are just a distant memory for the average joe. But what happens when a KMT administration sits in government? What happens after 4 years, if friendly gestures like what happened in 2005 are repeated regularly? Imagine if China renounced its claim to Taiwan and said “OK, up to you.” Do you think that only 19% would support ultimate de jure independence?

I personally am not interested in random hypotheticals, especially when they’re unlikely to happen.

Imagine if the United States renounced the Taiwan Relations Act, and said “screw you Taiwan, we’re not getting involved under any circumstance”. Would support for reunification and independence remain the same?

We live in the world we live in. The only thing that matters is the conclusion that the Taiwanese come to; their thought process is only interesting in the way it effects their conclusion.

Bottom line, the vast majority of Taiwanese are not seeking independence as a goal.

As far as why support for annexation is dropping… I’ll show you a related chart from the MAC.

http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/mlpolicy/pos/9612/9612_7.gif

I couldn’t find the English version on their site. The title is: “people’s perception of the mainland regime’s hostility”.

- the red bar shows those who believe the mainland government is “hostile towards our government”;
- the yellow bar shows “hostile towards our people”.

As you can see, most Taiwanese believe the Beijing government is hostile… not just to government, but to the Taiwanese people. What’s very significant to me, however, is the change shown in year 94 (2005 to the rest of us). That sample was taken shortly after Lien Chan/James Soong’s trip to Beijing.

Clearly, those positive effects have largely worn off… those events are just a distant memory for the average joe. But what happens when a KMT administration sits in government? What happens after 4 years, if friendly gestures like what happened in 2005 are repeated regularly?

]]> By: mike http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9591 mike Thu, 28 Feb 2008 05:26:00 +0000 http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9591 Tisdall's choice of language in referring to Taiwan does not surprise me. He writes for the Guardian, which is essentially a left-wing rag (though it does occassionally provide some glimmers of excellence). They are all socialists at the Guardian and China is a communist-totalitarian state (whatever one might say about its' economy). So of course someone writing for the Guardian is not likely to use language reflecting a Taiwanese perspective. Tisdall’s choice of language in referring to Taiwan does not surprise me. He writes for the Guardian, which is essentially a left-wing rag (though it does occassionally provide some glimmers of excellence). They are all socialists at the Guardian and China is a communist-totalitarian state (whatever one might say about its’ economy). So of course someone writing for the Guardian is not likely to use language reflecting a Taiwanese perspective.

]]> By: Anonymous http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9590 Anonymous Thu, 28 Feb 2008 03:31:00 +0000 http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9590 I would hope that taiwanese are pro independence but i'm not living there anymore but i do have family there still so i know it's tense. Its hard to state how you trully feel when big brother starts testing missles on your back door.<br/><br/>Jasmine I would hope that taiwanese are pro independence but i’m not living there anymore but i do have family there still so i know it’s tense. Its hard to state how you trully feel when big brother starts testing missles on your back door.

Jasmine

]]> By: Michael Turton http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9589 Michael Turton Wed, 27 Feb 2008 23:18:00 +0000 http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9589 That's quite true -- but at the same time, it is absurd to argue that support for de jure independence here is only 19%. Imagine if China renounced its claim to Taiwan and said "OK, up to you." Do you think that only 19% would support ultimate de jure independence?<br/><br/>Tisdall should also note that positions fluctuate over time, and this is not the first time that the 19% figure has been hit -- which I assume he got from adding the two "independence" choices. Even in that poll support is clearly not at 19% -- unless you want to make the absurd claim that everyone in the "status quo now, decision later" column is pro-annexation.<br/><br/>Too, other, better survey work shows support for independence as a final option consistently much higher. The MAC poll omits at least two important questions (1) What if China didn't care and (2) What ultimate outcome would you like to see?<br/><br/>Finally, as Tisdall can see from the MAC polls, support for unification is also falling. If Beijing is really attracting Taiwanese, why is support for annexation falling? What is actually happening is an increased preference for the status quo, which is the result of domestic politics.<br/><br/>Michael<br/><br/>Michael That’s quite true — but at the same time, it is absurd to argue that support for de jure independence here is only 19%. Imagine if China renounced its claim to Taiwan and said “OK, up to you.” Do you think that only 19% would support ultimate de jure independence?

Tisdall should also note that positions fluctuate over time, and this is not the first time that the 19% figure has been hit — which I assume he got from adding the two “independence” choices. Even in that poll support is clearly not at 19% — unless you want to make the absurd claim that everyone in the “status quo now, decision later” column is pro-annexation.

Too, other, better survey work shows support for independence as a final option consistently much higher. The MAC poll omits at least two important questions (1) What if China didn’t care and (2) What ultimate outcome would you like to see?

Finally, as Tisdall can see from the MAC polls, support for unification is also falling. If Beijing is really attracting Taiwanese, why is support for annexation falling? What is actually happening is an increased preference for the status quo, which is the result of domestic politics.

Michael

Michael

]]> By: CCT http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9586 CCT Wed, 27 Feb 2008 18:33:00 +0000 http://michaelturton.wordpress.com/2008/02/27/catapulting-the-propaganda/#comment-9586 The 19% number comes from the MAC poll, published on a regular basis:<br/><br/>http://www.mac.gov.tw/english/english/pos/9612/9612e_1.gif<br/><br/>I don't think he missed the point on how mainstream "Taiwanese identity" is today. <br/><br/>I think you're missing the point that a Taiwanese identity isn't necessarily mutually exclusive with a Chinese identity. You're missing the point that identifying with Taiwan doesn't mean advocating for an independent Taiwan. The 19% number comes from the MAC poll, published on a regular basis:

http://www.mac.gov.tw/english/english/pos/9612/9612e_1.gif

I don’t think he missed the point on how mainstream “Taiwanese identity” is today.

I think you’re missing the point that a Taiwanese identity isn’t necessarily mutually exclusive with a Chinese identity. You’re missing the point that identifying with Taiwan doesn’t mean advocating for an independent Taiwan.

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